UPSC Notes

Impact of El Niño on Indian Agriculture and Economy

PYQs

8

Articles

1

Momentum

21

Phase IFoundation

Background

Overview

El Niño directly impacts India's monsoon-dependent agriculture, food security, rural livelihoods, and has significant ripple effects on inflation, fiscal policy (subsidies), and overall economic stability.

El Niño is a climate pattern associated with the warming of the ocean surface temperature in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, which significantly influences global weather patterns, including the Indian monsoon, often leading to deficient rainfall and impacting agricultural output.

Phase IIStatic core

Facts & tables

Key facts

Rainfall Shortfall

India Meteorological Department estimated 10% shortfall in 2026-27 due to El Niño.

Crop Impact

Potential risk to kharif and rabi crops.

Associated Issues

Fertilizer shortages, requiring reconsideration of crop-specific import/export policies.

Economic Impact

Affects agricultural output, contributing to inflation and impacting overall GDP growth.

Reference table

Static syllabus anchors

TypeReference
Conceptual areaBiogeography & Ecosystems
Conceptual areaClimate Change & Conventions

Reference table

Institutions & roles

BodyRole
India Meteorological Department (IMD)Monitors weather patterns, forecasts monsoon and el niño effects
Ministry of Agriculture & Farmers WelfareFormulates policies to mitigate agricultural risks, manages crop-specific policies
Reserve Bank of IndiaMonitors inflation, considers agricultural output in monetary policy decisions
Phase IIIExam lens

Prelims angle

Overview

Prelims angle: Policy measures

Prelims angle: Multi-statement analysis

Quick revision

  • El Niño leads to warming of Pacific Ocean surface, affecting global weather.
  • Often causes deficient Indian monsoon rainfall.
  • Directly impacts kharif and rabi crop yields.
  • Can exacerbate food and fertilizer shortages.
  • Contributes to inflation and affects GDP growth.

High-confidence PYQs

Topic timeline

Biogeography & EcosystemsClimate Change & Conventions

India’s economic prospects after the West Asian crisis’

08 Jul 2026 · El Niño causes deficient rainfall in India, threatening kharif and rabi crops, leading to potential food and fertilizer shortages, and impacting inflation and GDP growth.

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Related topics

Current topic

Impact of El Niño on Indian Agriculture and Economy

Practice writing on this topic

UPSC has asked 8 linked questions on Impact of El Niño on Indian Agriculture and Economy in Mains. Write an answer to one — and get it evaluated.