UPSC Notes

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Climate

PYQs

8

Articles

1

Momentum

21

Phase IFoundation

Background

Overview

El Niño is a critical factor in understanding India's climate variability, particularly monsoon performance, drought frequency, and associated impacts on agriculture, water resources, and disaster management. Its predictability is vital for national planning.

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major climate phenomenon characterized by periodic warming (El Niño) and cooling (La Niña) of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. It significantly influences global weather patterns, including the strength and distribution of the Indian monsoon.

Phase IIStatic core

Facts & tables

Key facts

Current Status

El Niño is near-certain through the heart of the upcoming monsoon season.

Historical Correlation

Approximately 60% of El Niño years since 1951 have brought deficient or below-normal rains to India.

Past Droughts

Severe droughts in India (e.g., 2002, 2009, 2014, 2015) were associated with El Niño events.

Counteracting Factors

Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) can sometimes counteract El Niño's negative impact, but reliance on it is cautioned.

Reference table

Static syllabus anchors

TypeReference
Conceptual areaClimate Change & Conventions
Conceptual areaBiogeography & Ecosystems
Phase IIIExam lens

Prelims angle

Overview

Prelims angle: Multi-statement analysis

Prelims angle: Conceptual understanding

Quick revision

  • El Niño: warming of eastern tropical Pacific.
  • Strongly linked to deficient Indian monsoons (60% correlation).
  • Associated with major droughts in India.
  • Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) can sometimes moderate its effects.
  • Crucial for understanding India's climate variability and disaster preparedness.

Elimination traps

Body vs treatyDifferentiate El Niño (phenomenon) from related climate indices or organizations.

Treaty = agreement between states; body = institution.

High-confidence PYQs

Topic timeline

Climate Change & ConventionsBiogeography & Ecosystems

​Missed call: On India and the southwest monsoon

08 Jun 2026 · El Niño, a warming of the Pacific, is strongly correlated with deficient Indian monsoons, posing a significant threat to agriculture and water security, necessitating proactive government measures despite potential mitigating factors like the Indian Ocean Dipole.

Read article

Related topics

Practice writing on this topic

UPSC has asked 8 linked questions on El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Climate in Mains. Write an answer to one — and get it evaluated.