UPSC Notes

El Niño and its Socio-Economic Impact on India

PYQs

8

Articles

1

Momentum

21

Phase IFoundation

Background

Overview

El Niño is a recurring global climatic phenomenon with profound and multi-sectoral implications for India's economy, agriculture, food security, social equity, and development goals. Understanding its mechanisms and impacts is crucial for policy formulation in disaster management, economic planning, and climate adaptation.

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a recurring climate pattern involving changes in the temperature of waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. El Niño, the warm phase of ENSO, is associated with a band of warm ocean water that develops in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific, leading to significant global weather and climate disruptions, often resulting in weaker monsoons and drought conditions in India.

Phase IIStatic core

Facts & tables

Key facts

El Niño Projection

High probability (82-96%) of El Niño emergence in 2026-27.

Monsoon Forecast

India Meteorological Department (IMD) projects 'below normal' monsoon rainfall (92% of long-period average) for 2026.

Economic Channels of Impact

Heat stress reducing worker productivity, agricultural losses due to uncertain rainfall, and increased food inflation.

Vulnerable Populations

Disproportionately affects the informal economy, daily wage earners, and widens urban inequalities.

Reference table

Static syllabus anchors

TypeReference
Conceptual areaBiogeography & Ecosystems
Conceptual areaAgricultural Policies & Supply Chains
Conceptual areaWelfare Schemes & Social Policies
Conceptual areaClimate Change & Conventions

Reference table

Institutions & roles

BodyRole
India Meteorological Department (IMD)Forecasts
U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)Forecasts
Ministry of Statistics and Programme ImplementationData provider
Phase IIIExam lens

Prelims angle

Overview

Prelims angle: Conceptual understanding

Prelims angle: Terminology-based question

Quick revision

  • El Niño: warm phase of ENSO, impacts global weather patterns.
  • India: weaker monsoon, drought conditions, increased heat stress.
  • Economic impact: reduced agricultural output, food inflation, lower informal sector productivity.
  • Social impact: widens inequality, disproportionately affects daily wage earners and urban poor.
  • Policy need: stronger climate adaptation measures, worker protection, better water management.

High-confidence PYQs

2013Conceptual understanding, Cause and effect relationships

Topic timeline

Biogeography & EcosystemsAgricultural Policies & Supply ChainsWelfare Schemes & Social PoliciesClimate Change & Conventions
Prelims 2013· Conceptual understanding, Cause and effect relationships

When El Niño becomes an economic crisis

05 Jun 2026 · El Niño, a warm phase of ENSO, causes significant weather disruptions like weak monsoons in India, leading to reduced agricultural output, increased food inflation, lower productivity in the informal sector due to heat stress, and exacerbated socio-economic inequalities, posing a major development challenge.

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Related topics

Current topic

El Niño and its Socio-Economic Impact on India

Practice writing on this topic

UPSC has asked 8 linked questions on El Niño and its Socio-Economic Impact on India in Mains. Write an answer to one — and get it evaluated.